On Wednesday, I said that 29 teams were locks for the 36 at-large slots. To that list I am now adding Florida, Arizona State, and VCU, which was the victim of a bid-stealer which knocked someone out of the bracket. (I feel a little nervous calling Temple a lock, but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.)
So here are the bubble teams competing for those last 4 slots:
TCU
NC State
Texas
St. John’s
Ohio State
Indiana
Georgetown
Belmont
UNC Greensboro
Alabama
Creighton
Clemson
Lipscomb
None of these teams is still playing, so there is no danger of their relative rank changing.
I’m going to narrow the list by guaranteeing that these teams will not make it:
Texas
Indiana
Georgetown
Creighton
Clemson
Lipscomb
So in my view, that leaves 7 teams competing for the last 4 spots:
TCU
NC State
St. John’s
Ohio State
Belmont
UNC Greensboro
Alabama
I would not be surprised to see any of these teams in, or any of them out. Actually I would be a little surprised to see UNCG in, but I cannot quite bring myself to take them off the list. Of these seven, here is how I would rank their chances:
1) TCU (IN)
2) Ohio State (IN)
3) Belmont (IN)
4) NC State (IN)
5) Alabama (OUT)
6) St. John’s (OUT)
7) UNCG (OUT)
But these teams are very, very close and these rankings get very subjective. I have St. John’s out, and a lot of sites have them in. What they have going for them is 5 Quadrant 1 wins. What they have going against them is… well, everything else. Their non-conference SOS is 216. They lost 5 games against Quadrants 2 and 3. Their NET is 72, which is by far the lowest of all teams we are considering here.
Of course, the thing to keep in mind is the possibility of additional bid stealers. There are still a few possibilities out there.
That’s how I see it right now.
A Little Learning 