NC State’s Chances

Once again, it seems that NC State is one of the most hotly debated of the bubble teams. So let’s do an in depth analysis of their chances.

There are a total of 36 at large teams in the field. I am going to say at this point that there are 29 locks or near-locks for those 36 spots. They are (with assumptions about who is going to win their conference tournaments):

Duke
North Carolina
Kentucky
LSU
Michigan
Purdue
Wisconsin
Kansas
Florida State
Gonzaga
Kansas State
Marquette
Virginia Tech
Mississippi State
Maryland
Iowa State
Auburn
Cincinnati
Louisville
Iowa
Oklahoma
Central Florida
Seton Hall
Mississippi
Temple
Baylor
Syracuse
Utah State
Minnesota

That leaves 7 spots available. Here are the teams which could conceivably get those spots:

TCU
Florida
NC State
Texas
St. John’s
Ohio State
Arizona State
Indiana
Georgetown
Belmont
UNC Greensboro
Alabama
Creighton
Clemson
Toledo
Lipscomb

So, in order for NC State NOT to make the tournament, 7 of those teams have to get in ahead of them. Let’s think about how that could happen.

I’m going to go ahead and concede a few teams that I think have a good case and will likely make it: TCU, St. John’s (although getting beat by 32 tonight can’t help), Ohio State, and Arizona State (playing right now – if they lose, maybe they drop). That leaves 3 spots. Who is going to get them?

First let’s talk about who is not going to get them.

• Lipscomb: Strength of schedule #215. A total of 4 wins against Quadrants 1 & 2. Not happening.
• Toledo: Just lost to Northern Illinois. They’re done.
• Clemson: 1-10 against Quadrant 1.
• UNCG: Very similar to Lipscomb, but their best win is against Furman. I don’t think you can get an at large bid without beating a team that makes the tournament (and Furman isn’t making it – Jerry Palm is delusional).
• Indiana: 17-15. Surely you can’t make the tournament 2 games over .500, can you? Also, they lost 12 out of 13. I’m willing to wager that no team has ever received an at large bid that lost 12 out of 13 games during the season.
• Texas: 16-15. Ditto. Maybe if they beat Kansas tonight we can talk.

So that leaves Florida, NC State, Georgetown, Belmont, Alabama, and Creighton for those final 3 spots.

Creighton lost to Xavier today and finished 18-14. Their best win, at Marquette, is definitely better than State’s best win. But the way I compare them is: Creighton went 3-10 against Quadrant 1; State went 3-9. Call it even. Creighton went 6-4 against Quadrant 2; State went 6-0. Advantage NC State. So I don’t see 18-14 Creighton making it over the Wolfpack.

Florida and Alabama I think are bigger threats. Alabama just beat Ole Miss, which gives them an identical 3-9 record to the Wolfpack against Quadrant 1. Alabama’s best win is over Kentucky, definitely better than State’s best win. So advantage Alabama. However, State went 6-0 against Quadrant 2, to Alabama’s 7-3. Advantage State. Alabama played a much, much tougher non-conference schedule, and we know what a hot button that is for the committee. I don’t think it’s open and shut, but I can see a scenario where the Tide gets in over the Pack, not to mention the fact that Alabama is still playing.

Florida has a similar profile. 3-11 against Quadrant 1, but with a better win (at LSU) than anything State has. 4-1 against Quadrant 2; 2 losses against Quadrant 3, just like State. They did not play a great non-conference schedule, but better than State’s. Again, I don’t think it’s clear cut, but let’s concede that Florida could get in over the Pack.

So now we’re down to one spot, and we have Belmont, Georgetown, and State.

Georgetown is almost universally acknowledged to have work to do. They sit at #78 in the NET (State is #32), by far the lowest of any of the teams in consideration. They played a crummy non-conference schedule. They went 11-10 against Quadrants 1 and 2; State went 9-9. Not much difference there. But overall, they lost 6 games below Quadrant 1, and that hurts them. Now they’re still playing, so we can’t rule out that they could play their way in. Let’s see how they do against Seton Hall tonight. If they lose, I think they’re done. If they win, we might have something.

Then there’s Belmont. Their resume is similar to UNCG and Lipscomb, but slightly better I think. They went 5-3 against Quadrants 1 & 2. Their best win is at Murray State, so they did at least beat someone in the tournament, and on the road. They swept Lipscomb. They played a decent non-conference schedule.

But honestly it’s so difficult to compare a team like Belmont with a team like State. It really comes down to a subjective judgment – what kind of team do you want in?

So while I still think State will get in, I can see the scenario where they don’t. Florida and Alabama get in on the basis of schedule strength and/or a conference tournament run; and then either Belmont gets in, because the committee decides to punish State for the non-conference SOS, or Georgetown wins a couple of games and plays their way in.

For State fans, watch Georgetown closely. If they lose tonight, I think you can write them off. Pull against Florida and Alabama; if either of them wins tomorrow, you can probably call them locks. And then, on Sunday, hope you don’t see Belmont in the bracket. If you do, it could be bad news.