It has been a really busy weekend and I’m excited to get the updated bracket out there.
Four teams have punched their tickets: Murray St. in the Ohio Valley, Gardner Webb in the Big South, Bradley in the Missouri Valley, and Liberty in the Atlantic Sun. And this does bring into play a couple of possible bid stealing scenarios as Belmont in the Ohio Valley and Lipscomb in the Atlantic Sun are legitimate at-large bid candidates.
On the top end, the situation for #1 seeds is an interesting one. My take is that Virginia has one locked up no matter what, and Gonzaga probably does too (although things would get interesting if they happen to lose in their conference tourney). I think the winner of Duke-UNC round 3, assuming that happens on Friday, will get one, and the loser will not. And that leaves the fourth for the SEC champion or Big 10 champion.
Without further ado, here’s the current bracket (assumed automatic bids in bold; tickets punched in bold italics):
#1 seeds: Virginia, UNC, Gonzaga, Kentucky
#2 seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan
#3 seeds: LSU, Texas Tech, Purdue, Houston
#4 seeds: Wisconsin, Kansas, Virginia Tech, Florida State
#5 seeds: Buffalo, Kansas State, Mississippi State, Nevada
#6 seeds: Maryland, Auburn, Cincinnati, Marquette
#7 seeds: Villanova, Wofford, Iowa State, Louisvile
#8 seeds: Oklahoma, Washington, Iowa, Baylor
#9 seeds: Ole Miss, UCF, VCU, Syracuse
#10 seeds: Minnesota, Utah State, Seton Hall, Temple
#11 seeds: NC State, Clemson, Indiana, Arizona State
#12 seeds: New Mexico State, UC Irvine, Ohio State, Florida, TCU, Belmont
#13 seeds: Liberty, Murray State, Hofstra, Vermont
#14 seeds: Old Dominion, Georgia State, Yale, Northern Kentucky
#15 seeds: Montana, Colgate, Omaha, Bradley
#16 seeds: Gardner Webb, Sam Houston State, Prairie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona, Norfolk State
Last Four Byes: NC State, Clemson, Indiana, Arizona State
Last Four In: Ohio State, Florida, TCU, Belmont
First Four Out: Texas, St. John’s, Toledo, Creighton
Next Four Out: Lipscomb, Furman, Alabama, Nebraska
A Little Learning 
I am not sure I agree that the loser of unc-duke 3 gets a 2. I think it depends if Zion is back. I believe that if Zion comes back in the acc tourney, duke gets a 1 regardless. I think the committee is incented to get them a premiere spot to showcase the hype of Zion.
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That’s possible, but the optics of giving 3 ACC teams a 1 seed are bad. And if somebody has to be out, in that scenario it would have to be Duke. Of course it also depends on who wins the SEC and Big 10.
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