I’ve added a new post on my method which, if you have the patience to read it, will help shed some light on how I arrived at the lists below. To clarify, the list on the left is what my model says the committee SHOULD do; the list on the right is what my adjusted model says the committee WILL do.
Should Be:
#1 seeds: Virginia, Duke, UNC, Michigan
#2 seeds: Tennessee, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Kentucky
#3 seeds: LSU, Kansas, Texas Tech, Purdue
#4 seeds: Houston, Florida State, Kansas State, Buffalo
#5 seeds: Virginia Tech, Nevada, Wisconsin, Cincinnati
#6 seeds: Wofford, Maryland, Marquette, Washington
#7 seeds: Iowa, Mississippi State, Villanova, Auburn
#8 seeds: Oklahoma, VCU, Belmont, UCF
#9 seeds: Iowa State, Utah State, Louisville, New Mexico State
#10 seeds: Minnesota, UC Irvine, Toledo, NC State
#11 seeds: Furman, Murray State, Ohio State, Lipscomb
#12 seeds: Temple, Syracuse, St. John’s, Baylor, Clemson, Ole Miss
#13 seeds: Arizona State, Vermont, Liberty, Hofstra
#14 seeds: Old Dominion, Drake, Georgia State, Harvard
#15 seeds: Montana, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky, Radford
#16 seeds: Colgate, Sam Houston State, Prairie View A&M,
Norfolk State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona
Last Four Byes: Temple, Syracuse, St. John’s, Baylor
Last Four In: Clemson, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Liberty
First Four Out: Florida, Seton Hall, East Tennessee State, Indiana
Next Four Out: TCU, Davidson, Texas, Alabama
Will Be:
#1 seeds: Virginia, Duke, UNC, Michigan St.
#2 seeds: Michigan, Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU
#3 seeds: Gonzaga, Kansas, Purdue, Kansas St.
#4 seeds: Texas Tech, Florida State, Wisconsin, Houston
#5 seeds: Buffalo, Virginia Tech, Marquette, Nevada
#6 seeds: Maryland, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Iowa
#7 seeds: Washington, Villanova, Oklahoma, Wofford
#8 seeds: Iowa State, Auburn, Louisville, VCU
#9 seeds: Minnesota, UCF, Utah State, Baylor
#10 seeds: Syracuse, Ohio State, Belmont, New Mexico State
#11 seeds: St. John’s, Toledo, Arizona State, Ole Miss
#12 seeds: NC State, Seton Hall, Temple, Clemson, Florida, Texas
#13 seeds: UC Irvine, Lipscomb, Vermont, Old Dominion
#14 seeds: Georgia State, Drake, Hofstra, Harvard
#15 seeds: Radford, Montana, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky
#16 seeds: Colgate, Sam Houston State, Prairie View A&M,
Norfolk State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona
Last Four Byes: Arizona State, Ole Miss, NC State, Seton Hall
Last Four In: Temple, Clemson, Florida, Texas
First Four Out: Furman, Indiana, Alabama, TCU
Next Four Out: Creighton, Murray State, Davidson, Liberty
A Little Learning 