On the top line, a consensus seems to have emerged that UNC and Gonzaga will get the nod over Michigan State. I’m not sure why, other than the infamous “eye test”. I’m going to go against the grain and say that the Spartans will get a #1 seed over UNC.
On the bubble watch, Oregon stole another bid, so in my mind it came down to 5 teams (Belmont, NC State, TCU, St. John’s, UNCG) for 2 spots. I’ve talked myself into and out of each team several times, but my final answer is going to be St. John’s and TCU. I think there is a good argument to be made for (and against) each team, and I won’t be surprised at any combination of those teams making it. I think UNCG would be the most surprising, but it’s possible.
St. John’s I don’t think is deserving; but ultimately I think the committee will give them the edge because of their 5 quadrant 1 wins.
There are others who think that Minnesota, Ohio St, Temple, and Arizona St are in danger, and I can’t completely rule that out, but I think they will make it.
Without further ado, here it is (automatic bids in bold):
#1 seeds: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, Michigan St
#2 seeds: UNC, Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan
#3 seeds: Houston, LSU, Florida St, Texas Tech
#4 seeds: Kansas, Wisconsin, Purdue, Auburn
#5 seeds: Kansas St, Cincinnati, Iowa St, Virginia Tech
#6 seeds: Mississippi St, Buffalo, Marquette, Villanova
#7 seeds: Wofford, Maryland, Nevada, Louisville
#8 seeds: Oklahoma, Utah St, Florida, Seton Hall
#9 seeds: Washington, UCF, Baylor, VCU
#10 seeds: Syracuse, Iowa, Ole Miss, Arizona St
#11 seeds: Minnesota, Ohio St, Oregon, Temple, St. John’s, TCU
#12 seeds: New Mexico St, St, Mary’s, UC Irvine, Murray St
#13 seeds: Liberty, Vermont, Northeastern, Yale
#14 seeds: Old Dominion, St. Louis, Georgia State, Montana
#15 seeds: Northern Kentucky, Colgate, Abilene Christian, Gardner Webb
#16 seeds: Bradley, Prairie View A&M, Fairleigh Dickinson, Iona, North Dakota St, NC Central
Last Four In: Ohio St, Temple, St. John’s, TCU
First Four Out: Belmont, NC State, UNCG, Alabama
A Little Learning 