I’ve decided to try my hand at Bracketology – my way.
I’ve been interested in the subject for years. Last year, I created an Excel-driven method for figuring out what the committee should do, not what they would do. And I still have that formula, but I’ve tweaked it a bit to account for the committee’s actual demonstrated behavior, and I think I’ve created a pretty good formula-driven replica of how they assess the teams. Now it’s time to put her in the water and see if she floats.
What’s unique, I guess, about my approach is that no human judgment is applied to my picks. It’s purely formula-driven. Of course it’s risky to try to replicate human behavior with a formula, because it assumes that human beings behave predictably and rationally, which is demonstrably false. But I still am curious as to how close I can come to replicating the logic of the committee.
I’ll try to post an update every day and provide some commentary on what changed and why, and explain some of my more idiosyncratic picks.
When all is said and done, I’ll compare my results to Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm, and we’ll see who wins when spreadsheet faces human. Although for all I know, those guys are using a spreadsheet too.
A Little Learning 